From：Internet Info Agency 2020-03-10 13:53:05
China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) announced on Monday the national passenger car market analysis report for February 2020. Affected by the early seasonal impact of the Spring Festival and the impact of the COVID-19, the retail volume of the national passenger car market in February was 252,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 78.5%. From January to February, the cumulative retail sales fell by 41.0% year-on-year, which shows that the impact of the epidemic situation is far greater than the interference of the Spring Festival factors.
In addition, CPCA said that if the epidemic could be lifted at the end of April, the auto market is expected to return to normal after May. But if there is no strong stimulus policy at the national level, then the decline in the passenger car market may further increase this year. For the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market in 2020, CPCA had previously expected a decline of 5% year-on-year, but now it is reduced by another 3 percentage points to 8%.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the car market is seriously abnormal
In February, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers in the national passenger car market was 219,900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 82% and a month-on-month decrease of 86%. Cumulative wholesale sales from January to February reached 1.8157 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%. During the epidemic, due to the low inventory of the manufacturers, the obstruction of transportation and logistics, the resumption rate of the dealers, and the rate of customers arriving at the stores were still low, and the manufacturers cancelled the February assessment, leading a low dealer enthusiasm for purchasing, which also led to abnormally low wholesale data in February..
Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in February were 11,000 units, down 77.7% year-on-year and 70% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to February reached 52,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 64%. Among them, PHEV sales were 22,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 84%. BEV wholesale sales were 0.9 thousand units, a year-on-year decrease of 76%. The wholesale volume of HEVs was 22,000, a decrease of 80% year-on-year.
From the performance of major auto manufacturers, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen occupy the top two in the narrow passenger car sales ranking with 30,185 and 27,770 vehicles. Geely Automobile surpassed SAIC-GM to climb to the third place to reach 19,600 units. However, due to the impact of the COVID-19, the entire automobile market sales performance is abnormal, so the above two lists do not have a strong reference significance.
Full-year sales forecast lowered to -8%
At present, the prevention and control of COVID-19 has not weakened throughout the country. Although the suppressed car purchase demand in January and February is expected to ease in March, due to the closed management of residential communities and the slow commercial recovery, the number of customers in each 4S shop is still a major problem. In addition, many people still work from home, and schools remain closed to protect students from disease, which lead a situation that buying cars are not urgent for most families.
Dealer's stock cars should have been emptied in February, but affected by COVID-19, the new car listing was forced to be delayed. The delay of the Beijing Auto Show has further slowed down the dealer's purchase rhythm. At present, the auto market downturn in February exceeded expectations, and the auto market recovery rate from March to April was also slow. The entire auto market is expected to be normal again after May.
CPCA said that if there is no strong stimulus policy at the national level, the negative growth rate of the auto market in 2020 may be further increased, which is a 3 percentage point reduction from the previous forecast of a 5% decline. The retail forecast for 2020 is expected to decline by 8% year-on-year, which is 9 percentage points lower than the forecast at the end of 2019 (1% year-on-year increase in 2020).
CPCA also believes that the cancellation of the Geneva Motor Show will further highlight the importance of the Beijing Auto Show. The auto show has the function of a vane in the automobile market, and is a stage for manufacturers to show themselves and promote themselves. For consumers, the auto show is an important place to experience car culture. China is the core battlefield for the transformation of the world's new energy vehicles. Therefore, although the Beijing Auto Show is postponed, we believe that manufacturers at home and abroad will still make greater preparations for the Beijing Auto Show with greater investment.
